A forecasting engine graded against real market prices.
Calibrated probability on real questions — scored against the market, not against vibes.
Build doorAI product
Problem
Most AI forecasting is unaccountable: confident numbers, no ledger of whether they were right, and no discipline separating what the model knew from what it couldn't have known yet.
Approach
Built an ensemble forecasting engine over live prediction markets with a leakage-safe evidence pipeline: every forecast is stamped, resolved against real outcomes, and scored — Brier, calibration, discrimination — with the market's own price as the bar to beat.
What shipped
- Forecasting engine + web app over live markets
- Point-in-time evidence pipeline with leakage guards and audits
- Automated resolution and a public-honest track record
- An anytime-valid skill monitor — no cherry-picked wins
The method behind the speed
Pre-registered experiments with negative results banked and published internally — the same eval discipline the firm ships inside every client build.
Your process could be the next case.
One week. A map of where AI pays off in your business, and which door you should walk through.